Public track record
How the defense picks performed
Every pick stays on the record. Results are compared with the saved pregame edition, including the misses. One week is a small sample.
2026 · Week 2 Final
Results checked . 32 of 32 defenses graded. Pending games and missing scores are excluded; scores may receive stat corrections.
5 graded
Average points
−1 to +1; higher is better
Scoring: ESPN custom league scoring; appliedTotal as reported, not ESPN default scoring. This is a fantasy D/ST report, not a game-margin backtest. Opponent implied points are an ordering signal, not predicted fantasy points.
Pregame inputs · Results and scoring weights (JSON) · Download report (JSON) · Original edition
| Pick | Defense | Fantasy points | Actual rank | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ersvs MIA | 8 | 7 | Final |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneersvs CLE | 1 | 23 | Final |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles@ TEN | 2 | 19 | Final |
| 4 | New England Patriotsvs PIT | 21 | 2 | Final |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargersvs LV | 3 | 18 | Final |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks@ ARI | 8 | 7 | Final |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravensvs NO | 2 | 19 | Final |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers@ NYJ | 5 | 14 | Final |
| 9 | Los Angeles Ramsvs NYG | 11 | 5 | Final |
| 10 | Denver Broncosvs JAX | 8 | 7 | Final |
| 11 | Kansas City Chiefsvs IND | -2 | 27 | Final |
| 12 | Carolina Panthers@ ATL | 25 | 1 | Final |
| 13 | Houston Texansvs CIN | 5 | 14 | Final |
| 14 | Chicago Bearsvs MIN | 7 | 12 | Final |
| 15 | Arizona Cardinalsvs SEA | -1 | 26 | Final |
| 16 | Atlanta Falconsvs CAR | -2 | 27 | Final |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboysvs WAS | 2 | 19 | Final |
| 18 | Jacksonville Jaguars@ DEN | 2 | 19 | Final |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers@ NE | 8 | 7 | Final |
| 20 | Tennessee Titansvs PHI | 6 | 13 | Final |
| 21 | Cleveland Browns@ TB | 5 | 14 | Final |
| 22 | New York Jetsvs GB | 5 | 14 | Final |
| 23 | Cincinnati Bengals@ HOU | 11 | 5 | Final |
| 24 | Buffalo Billsvs DET | 0 | 25 | Final |
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders@ LAC | 12 | 4 | Final |
| 26 | Washington Commanders@ DAL | -5 | 30 | Final |
| 27 | Indianapolis Colts@ KC | -2 | 27 | Final |
| 28 | Minnesota Vikings@ CHI | 17 | 3 | Final |
| 29 | New York Giants@ LA | 1 | 23 | Final |
| 30 | New Orleans Saints@ BAL | 8 | 7 | Final |
| 31 | Detroit Lions@ BUF | -5 | 30 | Final |
| 32 | Miami Dolphins@ SF | -7 | 32 | Final |
2026 · Week 1 Final
Results checked . 32 of 32 defenses graded. Pending games and missing scores are excluded; scores may receive stat corrections.
5 graded
Average points
−1 to +1; higher is better
The Raiders pick worked: our #3 choice scored 13 points. Jacksonville (#1) also scored 13; Pittsburgh (#5) scored 18. The Chargers (#2) scored 0 and Tennessee (#4) scored −1.
Scoring: ESPN custom league scoring; appliedTotal as reported, not ESPN default scoring. This is a fantasy D/ST report, not a game-margin backtest. Opponent implied points are an ordering signal, not predicted fantasy points.
Pregame inputs · Results and scoring weights (JSON) · Download report (JSON) · Original edition
| Pick | Defense | Fantasy points | Actual rank | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguarsvs CLE | 13 | 3 | Final |
| 2 | Los Angeles Chargersvs ARI | 0 | 23 | Final |
| 3 | Las Vegas Raidersvs MIA | 13 | 3 | Final |
| 4 | Tennessee Titansvs NYJ | -1 | 26 | Final |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelersvs ATL | 18 | 1 | Final |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eaglesvs WAS | 2 | 19 | Final |
| 7 | Kansas City Chiefsvs DEN | 12 | 6 | Final |
| 8 | New York Jets@ TEN | 9 | 8 | Final |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawksvs NE | 13 | 3 | Final |
| 10 | Detroit Lionsvs NO | 7 | 11 | Final |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills@ HOU | 3 | 16 | Final |
| 12 | Miami Dolphins@ LV | 3 | 16 | Final |
| 13 | Baltimore Ravens@ IND | 5 | 14 | Final |
| 14 | Chicago Bears@ CAR | 3 | 16 | Final |
| 15 | Los Angeles Ramsvs SF · neutral | 1 | 22 | Final |
| 16 | Minnesota Vikingsvs GB | 7 | 11 | Final |
| 17 | Atlanta Falcons@ PIT | 5 | 14 | Final |
| 18 | Dallas Cowboys@ NYG | 0 | 23 | Final |
| 19 | Houston Texansvs BUF | -5 | 31 | Final |
| 20 | Denver Broncos@ KC | 0 | 23 | Final |
| 21 | Cincinnati Bengalsvs TB | 18 | 1 | Final |
| 22 | Cleveland Browns@ JAX | -3 | 29 | Final |
| 23 | Green Bay Packers@ MIN | -2 | 28 | Final |
| 24 | New England Patriots@ SEA | 6 | 13 | Final |
| 25 | Washington Commanders@ PHI | 2 | 19 | Final |
| 26 | Carolina Panthersvs CHI | -6 | 32 | Final |
| 27 | New York Giantsvs DAL | 2 | 19 | Final |
| 28 | Indianapolis Coltsvs BAL | -3 | 29 | Final |
| 29 | San Francisco 49ersvs LA · neutral | 8 | 9 | Final |
| 30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers@ CIN | 8 | 9 | Final |
| 31 | New Orleans Saints@ DET | -1 | 26 | Final |
| 32 | Arizona Cardinals@ LAC | 10 | 7 | Final |
How to read this report
Rank correlation is Spearman’s correlation of the original opponent-total signal (lower is better) with actual fantasy points (higher is better), using average ranks for ties. Alphabetical display tie-breaks do not earn credit. A correlation of 0.28 does not mean “28% accurate.”
The top-five average uses the first five published picks, including any alphabetical boundary tie-break. The comparison is the equal-weight average of all completed defenses in that week, not a league-availability strategy. There is no verified pregame ESPN or FantasyPros benchmark here, so we do not claim to beat either.
Forecast files are preserved separately from results. Refreshes retain dated result downloads and replace the displayed summary for that week; previous weeks remain visible. Each report includes the forecast timestamp and SHA-256 hash. Ranking methodology →